Open Thread 9

Dec 12, 2023

"You are correct, Lynnwood Link will be the first extension to open with substantial parking at every station. That is a keen observation."

IMO park and rides are very important for these more suburban Link stations, and are usually the first to fill up if ridership is high. Feeder buses are not necessary if the park and rides are not full.

These park and rides will definitely help ridership on Lynnwood Link. People don't like living next to a freeway or train station, but they don't mind parking next to either. Plus, unlike TOD that can take years or decades, and has no guarantee the folks living there will use transit (the rub being if you want the same kind of residents as Totem Lake parking has to be available). I think for intercept stations only like 130th folks will be reluctant to get to a bus, take a bus to Link, and take Link to their ultimate destination, otherwise there will be a fourth seat. Especially with parking at Northgate and all four Lynnwood Link stations.

We — or I — focus a lot on first mile access but not last mile access, which in some ways is more critical because most folks simply hate transferring to a bus after getting off Link, in part because the bus will be less comfortable, slower, with more stops, and the point of Link is to make the overall trip faster and more convenient. Who wants to take Link 20 miles grade separated and then crawl the last one or two miles on a bus?

That is why Link does so well with stations that ARE last mile access: UW/U. Dist., Capitol Hill, downtown, Sodo for games. Link takes you where you are going.

The problem in that group is downtown Seattle, THE last mile access, and some recent articles don't give me a lot of hope many riders from the east or north will want to go there on Link (and not because of Link):

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/commercial-real-estate-crisis-empty-offices/674310/?utm_source=msn

https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-defaults-office-buildings-park-hotels-725-million-loan-2023-6

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-city-council-rejects-giving-city-attorney-power-to-prosecute-drug-cases/?utm_source=marketingcloud&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BNA_060723012640+BREAKING+Seattle+City+Council+rejects+giving+city+attorney+power+to+prosecute+dr…_6_6_2023&utm_term=Registered%20User

Today the 1500 stall park and ride at S. Bellevue is mostly empty. Not because East Link is not open becasue the 550 is arguable a better route and has mostly dedicated lanes. Because S. Bellevue is for eastsiders taking transit to Seattle.

I think the one city council in the world maybe worse than Seattle's council is San Francisco's council, that gets it now but now is too late. You can't really blame Link for Seattle's council (and the pandemic) from making downtown an area folks who don't live there don't want to visit. So now the mantra is Link isn't about peak hour commuters anymore. But it always has been about downtown Seattle. That is why all Link lines run through Seattle.

Seattle for good and bad has often followed San Francisco. Unfortunately, it followed the bad over the last several years. If BART and muni are in dire straits because folks don't want to go to downtown SF, or even visit, once the most vibrant city I visited, and SF has so many similar policies and demographics as downtown Seattle, is it really likely Seattle will escape what is happening in SF and Portland, which looks irreversible?

When we talk about zoning one thing I repeat is urbanism (the definition of last mile access) depends on dense, vibrant retail or the workers and visitors won't come and spend money. It is very hard to predict where vibrant retail will sprout (who would have thought U Village would have the most vibrant retail in Seattle and The Ave. and downtown dead) but a few prerequisites are well known: public safety, clean streets, obvious and adequate parking, and transit access (although transit is the least important, according to Kemper Freeman and Simon Properties that own Northgate Mall a detriment).

If SnoCo residents don't want to go to Seattle (although Northgate Mall might be an attraction that only further depresses downtown retail and visitors) there is very little point in them taking Link. The park and rides provide the first mile access they prefer and will use, but there has to be something at the final end that is last mile access when you get off Link, and right now downtown Seattle is not that and there is nothing Link can do about that (or ST Express buses) except to cut service. You provide frequency and coverage because folks want to ride that transit. Or you cut it and move on, like Metro is doing.

Induced demand is fool's gold if simply frequency or coverage are the inducement. Induced demand means there is someplace or thing at the end of the trip that folks want to take transit to. Or they won't go through the hassle of transit. Too many other options with free parking.

So much of Link depends on Harrell and the next council, and Seattle voters, because Link ridership is not about these suburban stations that were never designed as last mile access (which is basically all East Link and Lynnwood Link). Those suburban stations need FIRST last mile access, which is not hard to do, like along Lynnwood Link or S. Bellevue. But to create last mile access on Link, which means you are there when you get off because it is dense and vibrant, is extremely difficult, and there are not many stations like that once you eliminate the stations in downtown Seattle.

Northgate Link when it opened hardly increased total ridership. But not because the stations along Northgate Link are not good: they are two of the best. Ridership did not increase because fewer people wanted to go from Northgate Link to stations south, namely downtown Seattle. Reverse that — easier said than done with Seattle politics — and ridership will explode, including from the eastside.

First mile access is the easy part unless ideology trumps reality. Last mile access is very, very difficult in this very undense region, and means you are THERE when you get off Link.